← HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
Water AlliesTier 1
at HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.2% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 17.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -3.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |